Long before I came to Bearing Arms I developed a better-than-average “shenanigans detector” covering both alleged domestic crimes and allegations of  war crimes and massacres in the Middle East, both independently and for Pajamas Media. Somewhat like riding a bike, once you’ve developed a skill for spotting faked crimes, that skill never really leaves you.

That brings us to this story out of Seattle:

An anonymous individual (or individuals) left a target riddled with bullet holes on the doorstep of the Seattle-King County League of Women Voters’ Capitol Hill office over the recent holiday weekend—a message, the LWV believes, about the state chapter’s support for I-594, which would require background checks for gun sales online and at gun shows. A volunteer for the group found the target over the weekend.

Allison Feher, the group’s administrative manager, says the target did not include a note or any indication of who left it.

However, she says it was clearly aimed at the League, given that the only other nonprofit tenants of the building—including the Deaf Blind Service Center, the Helen Keller Center, and Powerful Voices (a group that works to empower young women)—have taken any position on any gun-related issue. “It’s just pretty unlikely that it was aimed at the Deaf Blind Service Center,” she says.

“There’s no other reason why somebody would have left it on the doorstep,” Feher says. “We do have one of those ‘Gun-Free Zone’ stickers on our window, but you’d have to be right up in front of our door to see it.”

In a statement, Seattle/King County LWV president Ellen Barton said, “This apparent attempt to intimidate us will not dissuade us from our work. The League of Women Voters will continue to be a forum for dialogue, research and education on gun laws and gun violence, and we look forward to reasonable, robust dialogue in the months ahead.”

The claim was accompanied by two photos of a target allegedly placed by someone attempting to intimidate the League of Women Voters.

The group claims that the target was found by one of their own volunteers over the course of the weekend.

This is an interesting claim, on a number of levels.

First, there is the claim that the target was found over the weekend by someone sympathetic to the “targeted” group, which sends an immediate warning flag.

Then there is that pesky Seattle weather.

Winds were gusty in Seattle over the course of the past weekend according to the National Weather Service. Wind speeds of 12 MPH out of the north were recorded on Saturday, with gusts up to 14 MPH. Sunday was even more blustery, with  wind speeds of 17 MPH  and gusts up to 21 MPH, also out of the north.

This is the front of the building, from Google Maps Street view. The camera is in the west, facing east. The gusty winds were scraping down the front of the building Saturday and Sunday (north to south, left to right)  with gusts of up to 21 MPH.

Now here is an overhead shot of the same building, also from Google Maps. You will note that 18th Avenue in Seattle runs north and south.

And yet despite the heavy daytime winds both days, and the building’s location on the corner where cross currents would have been swirling from East Madison Street, the target is laid gently, neatly, and perfectly evenly against the building’s front door?

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Anyone remotely familiar with paper targets knows that even a 5 MPH wind will blown a large paper target like this 25 meter pistol target a great distance. Even if initially placed against the door, it would blow down the street in a matter of minutes if not secured. It’s worth noting that the target had been folded, as well; it was not flat, and wind would have easily lifted it. Based upon weather data alone confirming a brisk breeze both days, it is unlikely that this target was placed there by anyone other than the photographer.

But it gets even more curious when we look at the target itself.

The holes in a target tell a very interesting story, and there have been dozens of articles written over the years on the patterns left on targets when shooting at them. Guns & Ammo did an article on this several years ago which matches closely to what we teach as instructors in Project Appleseed.

So what does this target tell us?

First, the size of the holes tells us that the target was not shot with a firearm. These holes are too small for even a .22LR, and are consistent with that of a 4.5mm/.177-caliber BB gun.

The completely random shot dispersion tells us the person firing the shots had no interest in hitting a specific part of the target, and was more interested in simply making holes than shooting a group.

Further, the low dispersion of the shots—all below the midline of the target—suggests that the shooter was using open sights, and was a complete novice who didn’t know how to use them properly. They were burying the front sight post deeply in a faulty sight alignment (shown below), while allowing the front site to drift both left and right.

While I can’t prove it, I suspect that the novice firing at this target was likely standing as well, due to the wide horizontal shot dispersion indicating a great deal of unsteadiness, even at close range.

Conclusions

This target was not fired upon by someone with a firearm, but with someone using a BB gun.

This target was not fired upon by someone with any amount of skill, as clearly revealed by the pattern of shots on target.

It is very unlikely, given the blustery wind conditions in Seattle this past weekend and the orientation of the building to the wind, that this target would have remained in front of the building for more than a few minutes before being blown away.

Based upon this information, it is may conclusion that this “attempt at intimidation” was more than likely faked by a supporter of Initiative 594 and the League of Women Voters, and the person who took the photographs is the most likely suspect.