Democrats are basically betting the midterms on voter outrage over the recent Supreme Court decisions striking down Roe v. Wade and overturning New York’s “may issue” carry laws, but a new poll from Monmouth University shows that the vast majority of Americans are far more concerned with inflation and other economic issues than they are guns or abortion.
This is the same poll that has Joe Biden’s approval rating sliding down to a new low of just 36%, which is another glaring warning sign for Democrats, but there’s even more bad news for the left when it comes to the biggest concern for voters.
Biggest concern via Monmouth poll:
15% gas prices
3% health care
2% tuition costs
1% civil rights
1% climate change
— Ryan Struyk (@ryanstruyk) July 5, 2022
If you give survey respondents the chance to select more than one issue as important to them, things like crime and “gun violence” typically show up as one of the top concerns for voters. Ask them to pick just one issue, however, and it’s not even close. Another recent poll commissioned by the Republican State Leadership Commitee and conducted in 15 battleground states found that economic worries were the top concern of 56% of voters, with 9% picking crime and 8% choosing abortion.
“Abortion isn’t a top issue for voters — not even close,” RSLC president Dee Duncan said. “While abortion is an issue people care about, the data makes clear that it is not among the top issues that will drive voting behavior in November. Instead, this election will remain about Biden’s failing economy.”
“We were confident enough in our theory of the case that we commissioned Cygnal to put a battleground poll in the field beginning Saturday morning – when the intensity surrounding the Dobbs ruling was at its peak – to see if anything changed from a similar January Survey,” Mr. Duncan said.
“The results affirm that state Republicans remain on offense this year, as they will continue to run campaigns focused on serving as the counterweight to President Biden’s failing economic policies that have created record-high inflation and gas prices,” he said.
In the Monmouth poll, 5% of respondents chose either “guns” or “crime/safety” as their top concern at the moment. Another 5% chose abortion. Meanwhile, a whopping 63% of respondents say an economic issue is their top concern; inflation, gas prices, grocery prices, and “the economy” are all simply different aspects of the same fundamental issue of economic uncertainty.
Now, we’re not all single-issue voters, and Democratic focus on abortion and gun control may pay dividends in a few districts that are usually friendly but where they’re struggling to keep their seats this cycle, but there’s no way that these issues are going to help them keep their slim majority in the House when Americans are wincing every time they go to the grocery store and the gas station, and an increasing number of us are struggling to pay our monthly bills.
There’s also the fact that not every voter who says “guns” or “crime” are their top concern are in favor of more gun control laws. That 3% includes those 2A voters as well, though again, I suspect that there are fewer gun owners solely motivated to vote because of their Second Amendment rights this year. The gun vote will still turn out, but many of them have more than the right to keep and bear arms on their mind at the moment, including their ability to continue to put food on the table and a roof over their head.
Democrats are hoping that culture war issues like abortion and gun control will motivate their base to turn out in record numbers in November, but so far there’s just no indication that’s happening. The economy will be the primary factor in the midterms, and that means that Democrats are heading for a shellacking this fall.