Tennessee State Rep. Gloria Johnson was hoping that her role in pushing for more gun control laws after the Covenant School shooting would be a springboard to higher office. Instead, she's getting ready for an epic faceplant in her race against incumbent Sen. Marsha Blackburn. 

Johnson was one of the "Tennessee Three" Democrats who disrupted proceedings on the House floor to protest in favor of gun control last year, and was the only one of the trio who wasn't expelled from office (the other two representatives were quickly re-elected by their home districts). She handily won the Democratic primary in August, and Democrats were hoping that her candidacy would give voters the chance to prove their dissatisfaction with Republicans' lack of interest in pushing "red flag" laws, "assault weapons" bans, and repealing permitless carry. 

Instead, it looks like Johnson is in for one of the worst losses Democrats have had in recent memory. Six years ago Blackburn won re-election against Democrat and former governor Phil Bredesen 55-44. There hasn't been much polling of the Senate race this year, but the few surveys that have been taken show Blackburn crushing Johnson by more than 20 points. 

Democrats wanted this race to be a referendum on gun control, but now that Johnson is likely to suffer an epic defeat next Tuesday the goalposts have shifted.

“What I was thinking about was the importance of flipping the State House and the State Senate,” Ms. Johnson said, describing her decision to run. And that, she added, required “somebody at the top of the ticket who was really speaking to Tennessee voters about how things could be better.”

For months Democrats and gun control activists in Tennessee proclaimed to anyone who would listen that Republicans were out of touch on gun control issues. A reckoning was coming, and they would pay a price at the polls this November. So, are Democrats in a position to flip either the House or Senate? 

Not really, though Johnson will still have a job.  

Regardless of the Senate outcome, Ms. Johnson is guaranteed to remain in office: She is also running unopposed for her seat in the State Legislature. She was first elected in 2012 and represents part of Knoxville. 

Her position within the state party has also shaped her alliance with a number of first-time candidates, many of whom cite the aftermath of the 2023 school shooting as motivation for running.

Few are expected to flip Republican-held seats. But even contesting some of these seats is a signal of progress for the party, which has repeatedly failed to recruit any candidates or secure national support for those who do run.

Among the first-time candidates is Maryam Abolfazli, the daughter of Iranian immigrants and a lead organizer behind some of the earliest protests in 2023, who is trying to unseat Representative Andy Ogles, a hard-line Republican who faces federal scrutiny over his campaign finances.

“I think there’s a victory that’s hard to see,” said Ms. Abolfazli, who called her last-minute decision to run the “natural conclusion” to months of protests in Nashville.

And Shaundelle Brooks, who became a champion of tougher gun laws after her son, Akilah Dasilva, was killed in a 2018 rampage at a Waffle House in Nashville, is running for a rare open state House seat in the suburbs of the city. 

Her hair, dyed blue in honor of her son, has faded in recent weeks, after spending hours knocking on doors and meeting with voters.

“For me, it was like, I can’t just ask Justin to do this or ask Gloria every time — I need to get out there and do this,” Ms. Brooks said, referring to Mr. Jones, who represents a part of Nashville. She added, “People were really angry and really frustrated. That got us to where we are right now — running.”

Unlike Johnson, Jones has a pretty good chance of winning her race for state representative. Her district leans blue, and Democrat Darren Jernigan won the seat 60-40 just two years ago. If she does win, it will hardly be an indication that gun control is wildly popular in Tennessee. 

A win by Abolfazli would be a surprise, given that Rep. Andy Ogles won re-election by almost 14 points two years ago. But with Abolfazli admitting that a victory is "hard to see", it doesn't appear that an upset is on the table. 

If candidates like Johnson and Abolfazli were running neck and neck with Blackburn and Ogles, the narrative would be that Tennessee voters are ready for change and that Republicans are out of touch when it comes to "gun safety" legislation. So what happens when they're defeated next week? Will the media in Tennessee and beyond admit that it's the gun control advocates who are out-of-step with Tennessee voters? That their "common sense" proposals don't make much sense to most Tennesseans? 

I doubt it, but that's the lesson the anti-gunners should take away from this election cycle. Gun control advocates might be able to win their races in Democrat-majority districts, but gun control is not a winning message for Democrats looking to make inroads in swing districts or those that lean towards Republicans. Tennesseans do care about protecting kids and improving public safety. It's just that most of them don't believe we have to infringe on a fundamental civil right to do so.