There are few people I would want to be less than Brett Kavanaugh right now. He’s been peppered with the most unsupported allegations possible for some of the most horrendous crimes known to man. His reputation is ruined. His good name, smeared.
And there’s not really a silver lining for him.
The thing is, it looks like there’s not much of a silver lining for the Democrats who kicked this particular anthill, either. You see, while people like Michael Bloomberg are still funneling millions to anti-gun candidates because he believes Democrats are energized, that might not really be the case.
Just over a month away from critical elections across the country, the wide Democratic enthusiasm advantage that has defined the 2018 campaign up to this point has disappeared, according to a new NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll.
In July, there was a 10-point gap between the number of Democrats and Republicans saying the November elections were “very important.” Now, that is down to 2 points, a statistical tie.
Democrats’ advantage on which party’s candidate they are more likely to support has also been cut in half since last month. Democrats still retain a 6-point edge on that question, but it was 12 points after a Marist poll conducted in mid-September.
The results come amid the pitched and hotly partisan confirmation battle over Brett Kavanaugh’s nomination to the Supreme Court. Multiple women have accused Kavanaugh of sexual misconduct when he was in high school and college. He categorically denies all the allegations. The FBI is conducting a supplemental investigation into the accusations that is expected to be wrapped up by the end of this week.
With Democrats already fired up for this election, the Kavanaugh confirmation fight has apparently had the effect of rousing a dormant GOP base.
“The result of hearings, at least in the short run, is the Republican base was awakened,” noted Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the poll.
Of course, I made that comment myself yesterday.
When it comes to midterm elections, the thing you want most is for your side to be highly motivated while the other side doesn’t give a damn. If you do that, you can just about run the table. That’s how you get blue and red waves.
That’s not the case now. You don’t have one side highly motivated. You have both. Republicans aren’t going to sit this one out.
And that spells disaster for anti-gun candidates in battleground districts.
As it is, gun control isn’t really a winning issue for Democrats. It doesn’t motivate their base to vote. It’s rarely the issue on which a Democratic voter selects a candidate.
With Republicans, however, it’s almost a requirement. Their base is either gun owners or people who value the Second Amendment despite not owning any firearms themselves. Support for the Second Amendment is an issue that does motivate them, and they flock to the polls to defend it as well.
Couple that with the outrage over the treatment of Brett Kavanaugh, and it’s a recipe to get every Republican to the polls.
That blue wave the Left was expecting may well end up looking awfully red at this point.