So-called gun violence is always going to be a major talking point, even though it's down across the board. This is obviously good news, and I think we all have a good idea why that is.
While I can't prove that it was because of the Bruen decision, the drop disproves a lot of anti-gun talking points, and while I'd put money on the decision being the reason for that drop, intellectual honesty precludes me from declaring it outright.
That's because, as we all know, correlation doesn't equal causation.
Again, though, we've got a pretty good idea. For folks at The Trace, this is apparently some kind of mystery.
On its own, the third quarter recorded 3,301 shooting deaths, the lowest figure in over a decade of GVA data for the three-month stretch.
Why are we seeing this decline? A recent report from the Council on Criminal Justice surveyed four dozen scholars on the crime decline in recent years. It found no single cause, but broad agreement that a range of factors — including the end of the pandemic, community violence intervention work, and focused deterrence from law enforcement and social services — each played a role.
There are important caveats with the shooting data. GVA does not capture every shooting. It can enter or update data on shootings weeks or months after they happen. (These numbers were pulled from GVA on October 13.) It also does not track gun suicides, which represent two-thirds of all shooting deaths. Still, GVA maintains the most complete, timely information available.
The limitations they mention are very real, because GVA just uses news reports. However, that fact is part of why it's not a complete, timely source of information.
Still, as laughable as the glazing of GVA is, what comes next is almost funnier:
Gun Sales
Gun sales are up in 2026, for the first time in six years. The increase has been modest, about two percent, with an estimated 10.6 million firearms sold through three quarters.
They're so close to recognizing something, but their ideological blinders just won't let them see it. If more guns mean more crime, and gun sales are up, then what does that say about the claim? Anyone? Just raise your hands.
Damn, that's a lot of hands.
Anyway, the point is that gun sales are up, violent crime is falling, and that's at least proof that one of the major slogans of the anti-gun movement is complete and total male bovine excrement. It's more likely evidence that the opposite is true, though again, that pesky intellectual honesty won't let me.
But what about those programs that the so-called experts touted?
The reality is that violent crime is complex enough that we all might be right. Such a decline could be because of Bruen, or a dozen other things, as well as being because of them all. I don't have a problem with interventions that don't include guns in any way. If it works, it works, and it's no skin off my keister if it does. Unlike some people, I just want the numbers to decline.