California’s current population is more than 29 million souls, but thanks to the state’s restrictive “may issue” permitting system, there are only 56,341 active concealed carry permits as of 2013.

Calguns Foundation has issued data projecting the number of concealed carry permits that the state would have to issue in the first year if the state is forced to adopt a “shall issue” permit as a result of the decision in  Peruta v. San Diego (PDF).

Based upon the percentage of the population that decided to apply for a permit, and extrapolating from existing permitting data, Calguns Foundation suggests that from between 292,342 to 1,461,709 Californians will receive concealed carry permits, figuring a 1%-5% application rate.

If California achieves a concealed carry rate on par with North Carolina’s (2.33% of the population, as of 2011) this would give the state 678,153 concealed carry permit holders, or a 1103-percent jump.

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