I reached out to my friend Jim Geraghty from National Review on Monday afternoon to invite him on today’s Bearing Arms Cam & Co.
“Let’s talk about the Iowa caucus results, who won and who lost, and what the impact will be on the actual nomination process,” I told him.
Well, we talk about everything except for the results, because when we taped the show Tuesday morning, no results had been released. Democrats are scrambling right now to figure out what happened Monday night, and the head of the state Democrat Party still isn’t sure when all of the results will be released.
Based on the live reporting from various cable outlets across the state on Monday night, however, the news doesn’t look great for Joe Biden. Jim points out that CNN and others were set up in the state’s bigger cities and university towns, which aren’t exactly Biden strongholds, but in several of the caucus sites shown on television, Biden couldn’t even get 15% of the voters to align with him. If Bernie Sanders ends up winning Iowa while Biden underperforms, who benefits the most?
Arguably the answer is Michael Bloomberg. A new national poll has Bloomberg at 14%, which is one of his best showings since he entered the presidential campaign back in November. Bloomberg’s strategy is predicated on the idea of a Biden collapse, and with Sanders leading the polling in New Hampshire, it’s looking more and more like Biden will at least be seen as damaged goods by the time the Super Tuesday primaries roll around in early March. That’s when Bloomberg is hoping to win delegate-rich states like California and Texas, or at least be competitive enough to pick up some delegates on the way to the convention. If no candidate has enough delegates to secure the nomination outright, a brokered convention would be the ultimate opportunity for Bloomberg to wheel, deal, and buy his way into the becoming the nominee.
Of course we’re still a long way from that scenario coming to pass, and a lot would have to happen in order for Bloomberg to get his way. California, for example, hasn’t embraced Bloomberg with open arms, at least in the polling that we’ve seen over the last few weeks. Bernie Sanders holds a sizable lead in three of the four polls conducted since January, while Bloomberg’s best showing is 6% of California’s Democratic primary voters.
In Texas, there’s only been one poll conducted since the start of the year, and it showed Biden leading Sanders by almost 12 points, with Elizabeth Warren a close third and Bloomberg a distant fourth. Will Democrats in the Lone Star State really embrace the man who belittled Jack Wilson, the hero who stopped the church shooting in White Settlement back in January, even if Biden’s campaign falters over the next couple of weeks? I doubt it, but at the same time, I’m not underestimating the Bloomberg campaign and the hundreds of millions of dollars the candidate is pouring into his effort to become president, including his latest deluge of cash in the wake of the caucus chaos on Monday night.
Scoop: In the wake of Iowa debacle, Mike Bloomberg told aides this morning to double ad spending—from 1200 points to 2400 points in all targeted markets. https://t.co/PvtbOiGBMk
— michaelscherer (@michaelscherer) February 4, 2020
Make sure you check out the entire interview with Jim Geraghty above, and stick around for today’s armed citizen story, our recidivist report, and one of the best good deeds of the day I’ve covered in quite a while.
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