Sixty percent of likely voters supported Proposition 36, a slight increase from the Berkeley poll‘s findings in August, while 21% opposed the measure and 19% were undecided.

A majority of Republicans and independents strongly backed the measure, as did a plurality of Democrats. Both men and women supported Proposition 36, as did all age groups, though voters under 30 years old expressed the least support. Likely Black voters opposed the ballot measure, which opponents say will unfairly target people of color, while majorities of white, Latino and Asian American/Pacific Islander voters supported it, the poll found.

Forty-two percent of likely voters don’t believe Proposition 36 will reduce homelessness and the number of people addicted to drugs, while 39% believe it will be effective in doing so.

For many supporters of Proposition 36, the promises of a reduction in homelessness and drug addiction may be less important than ensuring that criminals actually face consequences for their actions; a premise that many progressive Democrats in the state abhor. 

The measure is strongly backed by a group of California prosecutors and large retailers, including Walmart, and aims to overhaul parts of Proposition 47, a measure approved by voters in 2014 that reduced certain drug and property crime penalties.

Before Proposition 47 passed, some thefts could be considered felonies if the merchandise stolen was valued at $450 or more, but Proposition 47 raised the threshold to $950. Law enforcement organizations and others have criticized those changes, saying the reduced punishment has led to an increase in thefts and other lawlessness across California.

Gov. Gavin Newsom and California’s Democratic legislative leadership oppose Proposition 36, fearing it would return the state to tough-on-crime policies of the past that led to state prisons being so overcrowded that the federal courts ruled the state was violating the constitutional rights of inmates. DiCamillo said the leaders’ warnings haven’t swayed voters thus far.

California had a choice when the federal courts ruled that the state's prisons were overcrowded. Lawmakers could have built more facilities to house offenders, but instead they pushed Prop 47 as a fairer and more equitable approach to the issue. A decade later and voters appear to be fed up with the false promises of a safer, more inclusive society after downgrading serious offenses from felonies to misdemeanors, as well as other soft-on-crime policies pushed by progressive DAs like L.A. County prosecutor George Gascon. 

Even many Democrats in California are ready to undo Prop 47. The new Berkeley/LA Times poll found 48% of Democrats plan to vote in favor of Prop 36, while just 28% say they plan on voting against it. Prop 36 also enjoys support from 58% of independent/third party voters, and a whopping 83% of Republicans say they plan on voting for the ballot measure. 

The overwhelming support for Prop 36 doesn't mean that California's going to turn red anytime soon, but it is a sign that many voters are getting fed up with the far-left drift of the state. The same Berkeley/Times poll found growing opposition to Prop 32, which would raise the minimum wage in the state, as well as majority opposition to Prop 33, which would expand the power of local governments to enact rent control policies. 

On its face, there's nothing in Prop 36 that would impact the state's gun control laws. But if Prop 36 is successful, it may also provide a clue about how Second Amendment supporters can win over non-gun owners in California going forward. A pure 2A argument isn't likely to move the needle with folks who aren't exercising their right to keep and bear arms, but reminding them that Democrats are focused more on combatting legal gun ownership than violent crime just might.