The gun control group Giffords is putting its weight behind Democrat Kathy Padilla Stout in her quest to keep keep gun maker, influencer, and 2A champion Brandon Herrera from serving in Congress.
Virtually every gun control group in the country is going to be vocally opposed to Brandon Herrera's bid to become the next congresscritter for TX-23, but Giffords is the first organization to devote any real time and attention to the race outside of a few press releases. Several individuals associated with Giffords' PAC were on hand for Stout's first public campaign rally last week, and Giffords executive director Emma Brown is hinting that the anti-gun group will be devoting more resources to Stout's campaign between now and November.
“We think this is a really important race with major national implications for this issue,” said Giffords’ executive director Emma Brown. “Brandon Herrera is one of the most extreme, anti-gun-violence-prevention candidates anywhere on the map.”
Thirty-year-old Herrera is best-known for his social media platform, where millions of followers watch him shoot and talk about different kinds of guns.
He also moved his small gun manufacturing business to San Antonio several years ago, and became the GOP nominee to replace former U.S. Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-San Antonio) after a scandalous affair forced the latter to drop his reelection bid and resign before the end of his term.
Since then, an array of Democratic groups have shown fresh interest in an unusually tough district. TX23 supported President Donald Trump by nearly 15 percentage points in 2024 — much more than the roughly 5-point margin party operatives typically consider to be competitive.
“The fundamentals of this district are pretty hard, and it’s important to still be real that [Democratic nominee Katy Padilla Stout] is in a very hard race,” said Brown, who previously ran U.S. Senate and House campaigns before working for the Giffords group.
There have only been two polls for TX-23, and both of those were conducted back in March. That's a lifetime in politics, but it is worth noting that despite Trump winning the district by 15 points two years ago, both polls had Herrera ahead by just two points, well within the margin of error.
Another sign that the district may be more competitive than it was two years ago, when Rep. Tony Gonzales clobbered his Democrat opponent by more than 20 points? Democrats actually cast more ballots than Republicans in the primary. The difference was only about 5,000 votes, but that's still cause for concern given the fact that TX-23 is supposed to be a safe Republican seat.
We know that Giffords is using surrogates to back Padilla Stout's campaign. The bigger question is whether the gun control lobby will spend a significant amount of money in their attempt to defeat Herrera. According to the FEC, Giffords PAC has about $6 million in its coffers right now. Everytown for Gun Safety's PAC essentially has as much money as Michael Bloomberg wants to dump into it, but he also has his Independence USA PAC that can be used to spend big on anti-gun candidates or attacking pro-2A candidates like Herrera.
While TX-23 is a conservative district, it's also home to Uvalde, where 19 students and two teachers were shot and killed at Robb Elementary four years ago. That shooting was the impetus for the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, which was spearheaded through the Senate by John Cornyn... and was one of the primary reasons Cornyn was defeated in this year's primary by Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Gonzales voted for BCSA as well, which was one of the reasons why Herrera decided to challenge him.
Uvalde will loom large in the TX-23 race, and was front and center during Padilla Stout's first public campaign appearance, where she was joined by Bexar County Sheriff Javier Salazar.
Padilla Stout said that despite many years as a public school teacher, she was so struck by the 2022 shooting at Uvalde’s Robb Elementary School that she found herself among the many parents seriously considering homeschooling their children to keep them safe.
“The core of this campaign has always been about a mom on a mission,” Padilla Stout said. “I am happy to report that since we launched our campaign in November, I have had hundreds of moms join me on this journey to take our communities back, and to help our children and our neighbors.”
Salazar, meanwhile, said the challenges that law enforcement officers face from a lack of gun safety regulations in Texas is undeniable.
“I see the consequences of gun violence up-close every single day. I see what happens after a shooting, after a deadly domestic violence call, after a child gets access to an unsecured firearm, and after a family loses a loved one to suicide,” Salazar said. “… We can support law enforcement and still invest in prevention before deputies are called to yet another tragedy.”
Salazar is the rare progressive sheriff in the 29 counties that make up TX23, but he’s trying to help Padilla Stout make inroads with those who might be open to hearing her out.
Padilla Stout is sure to get a lot of moral support from the gun control lobby between now and November. If they start to put real money into the TX-23 race, though, that will be an indication that groups like Giffords believe she actually has a shot at defeating Herrera. So far we've seen no evidence of that, but gun owners who want to see Herrera in Washington, D.C. next year should be proactive in supporting his campaign instead of waiting to see what the anti-gunners will do.
