For at least four yyears, the gun control lobby has been predicting a rise in shootings and violent crime. First it was the Bruen decision and the demise of "may issue" carry regimes that was going to make the country a more dangerous place. Since then they've used the election of Donald Trump, the slashing of federal grants for community gun violence prevention programs, the Wolford decision, the ATF's internal reforms, and the DOJ's decision not to enforce NFA registration requirement to argue that more violence is right around the corner.
Instead, it looks like the United States is headed towards the lowest homicide rate ever recorded, and the fewest number of murders in over 50 years.
Crime analyst Jeff Asher says now that we're in the last quarter of the year we can start to get a good handle on what the overall crime picture will look like come December 31, and he believes the U.S. "will almost certainly have the lowest murder rate ever recorded, the lowest property crime rate ever recorded, and the lowest violent crime rate since the late 1960s."
The US murder rate will fall a lot in 2026 though the drop will likely be smaller than it was in 2025. All available evidence points to murder dropping around 16ish percent in 2026. Our national forecast tool — to be released in not too long on the Crime Index — points to a murder rate of around 3.5 per 100k and 12,000 or so murders.
That would mean 2026 will record by far the lowest murder rate ever recorded (consistent murder rate estimates start around 1960) and the fewest murders since 1967 when the United States had 150 million or so fewer people.
That is simply remarkable, and it flies in the face of the fundamental premise of the gun control movement that more guns inevitably leads to more crime.
Asher breaks down some of the declines reported by major U.S. cities, and some of the stats are absolutely incredible.
Birmingham, Alabama: — down 44.1 percent
Cincinnati, Ohio — down 41.2 percent
Houston, Texas — down 40.4 percent
Nashville, Tennessee — down 39.6 percent
Memphis, Tennessee — down 37.8 percent
New Orleans, Louisiana — down 34.5 percent
Fort Worth, Texas — down 32.7 percent
Jacksonville, Florida — down 31.1 percent
Keep in mind, many of these cities have seen similar declines over the past few ears. In New Orleans, for example, there were 145 homicides between January and August 2023. Between January and August of this year, there were 53.
Permitless carry took effect in New Orleans on August 1, 2024, and despite claims by anti-gunners that permitless carry leads to anarchy in the streets, homicides in New Orleans continued to drop like a stone.
All of the cities mentioned above are in permitless carry states. But what about cities in states that were "may issue" until Bruen? According to the gun control lobby, violent crime and murders were going to go up in those places as it became easier to legally carry a gun. Did that happen?
Not in the major cities highlighted by Asher. In Baltimore, there were 334 homicides in 2022. By 2025, the number had plunged to 133, and so far this year murders have decreased by another 12.9 percent.
There were 438 murders in New York City in 2022. In 2025, there were 305. Right now the Big Apple's murder rate is down another 18.8 percent, and it's likely the city will have recorded fewer than 300 murders when the ball drops in Times Square on New Year's Eve.
Los Angeles shows a similar story: 387 murders in 2022, 224 in 2025, and another 2.7 percent decline between January and August of this year.
These statistics are proof that the "more guns equals more crime" premise put forth by gun control advocates is absolute nonsense. Now, crime is cyclical, and at some point the numbers are going to rise again, but we should not lose sight of the fact that we are a safer country now than at any point in the last 60 years. And when it comes to homicide, the most heinous crime of all, the rate is likely the lowest it's been in our nation's history. That is a stunning achievement, and one that's worth celebrating.
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