Recent cartel violence in Puerto Vallarta has once again highlighted the brutal realities of Mexico’s ongoing drug wars. Amid reports of clashes and instability in the popular tourist destination, gun control activist David Hogg took to social media to comment on the source of the firepower fueling such conflicts. In his post, Hogg claimed that “90% of the guns used by the cartel come from” America; attributing the violence, and even aspects of mass migration, to “weak gun laws” in the United States that supposedly arm these criminal organizations.
This assertion, while provocative, relies on a heavily distorted interpretation of available data. The “90%” figure Hogg references is not a comprehensive measure of all cartel weapons. Instead, it stems from a narrow subset of firearms: those that Mexican authorities selectively submit to the U.S. Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) for tracing. These submissions occur precisely because officials already suspect a U.S. origin, often based on markings, appearance, or other indicators. When traced successfully, a high percentage (often around 70-90% in various reports over the years) confirm U.S. sourcing. Extrapolating this to claim that 90% of all cartel guns come from America ignore most untraced weapons and requires overlooking critical context.
ATF trace data is inherently limited. It only reflects firearms that are recoverable, identifiable, and submitted, typically handguns or rifles with serial numbers intact and apparent U.S. ties. Equipment like automatic/machine guns, grenades, rocket launchers, explosives, and belt-fed weapons rarely appear in these traces because they originate from different channels entirely. Cartels acquire such arms through global black markets, diverted stockpiles from foreign militaries (including Central American leftovers from past conflicts), and, most importantly, corruption within Mexico’s own security forces. Reports indicate thousands of desertions from the Mexican military over the years, with deserters often taking government-issued automatic rifles and other gear. Leaked or stolen munitions from Mexican armories have armed cartels with items not legally sold to civilians in the U.S., such as fragmentation grenades and anti-tank weapons.
The U.S. Government Accountability Office (GAO) and ATF have explicitly cautioned against using trace data to describe the full “universe” of firearms in criminal hands in Mexico. Trace statistics represent only a fraction of recovered weapons, often less than half of those seized, and cannot be reliably projected onto the broader arsenal. For instance, older analyses from the late 2000s and early 2010s showed that while 70-90% of successfully traced guns linked back to the U.S., the overall percentage of all seized firearms traceable to America was far lower (estimated at 12-48% when accounting for non-submitted or untraceable items). More recent data from the Mexican military and ATF continues to show significant U.S. involvement in certain categories (like semi-automatic rifles), but military hardware points to other sources.
Hogg’s framing simplifies a complex transnational problem into a convenient narrative blaming American gun laws and owners. By presenting the statistics without qualifiers, he amplifies fear and division rather than fostering informed discussion. A more accurate statement would acknowledge that most of the firearms Mexico chooses to submit for U.S. tracing originate from or pass through the United States—but that does not equate to 90% of all cartel weapons. The latter claim overlooks grenades, machine guns, and explosives sourced elsewhere, which do not factor into ATF reports at all.
This is not an isolated incident for Hogg, whose activism often prioritizes emotional appeals over nuanced evidence. Critics argue he exploits tragedies to advance a gun control agenda, relying on outrage rather than scrutiny of the data. Oh, I forgot to mention that David’s message was not even his own, but a regurgitated propaganda from your favorite “gun grabbers” at Everytown. In this case, the post capitalizes on graphic images of cartel violence to push the idea that U.S. policies directly enable it, while downplaying Mexico’s internal challenges like corruption, weak enforcement of its own strict gun laws, and diversion from official stockpiles.
The broader issue of arms trafficking across the U.S.-Mexico border is real and demands attention. Joint efforts by ATF and Mexican authorities have interdicted thousands of firearms bound south, and initiatives like enhanced tracing aim to disrupt flows. However, misrepresenting statistics hinders genuine solutions. Addressing cartel violence requires tackling demand for drugs in the U.S., corruption in Mexico, and international smuggling networks—not cherry-picking figures to score political points.
In the end, Hogg’s comment exemplifies how advocacy can distort facts for effect. The “90 percent” trope has circulated for years, often debunked for its selective nature. True progress on border security and reducing violence comes from evidence-based policy, not propaganda built on half-truths. By weaponizing a misinterpreted statistic amid real suffering in places like Puerto Vallarta, such rhetoric distracts from the multifaceted causes of the crisis rather than illuminating them.
Post Script: I would be remiss if I failed to mention that the ATF, despite constant denial, DOES in fact keep records of firearms in the US and even has a link on their website to explain how it works. So much for the Firearm Owners Protection Act from 1986 which BANS gun-owner or gun-sale registries (18 U.S.C. § 926(a)(3)). It’s no wonder that many Congressional Representatives recently wrote to the ATF about the approximate 1.1 BILLION records on file. More to follow on this; however, for the time being, it seems like we found an agency that lies more than David Hogg.
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