Study: 1 out of 179 Americans will be murder victim

AP Photo/Rich Pedroncelli

The average number of friends a person has on Facebook is 338. Obviously, some have more and some have less. That’s…kind of how averages work.

Why would I bring this up on a site about guns?


Because we also talk about crime, and according to a recent study, if the murder rate trends continue as they have been, either the Facebook user themselves or at least one of their friends will become a murder victim.

A study by Just Facts, a nonprofit research institute, examined the number of murders in 2021 based on death certificate data and found that if the current 2021 crime rate continues, one out of 179 Americans will eventually be murdered over the course of their lifetimes.

Jim Agresti, president and co-founder of Just Facts, who authored the study, told Fox News Digital, “That means if you’re in the United States, you live here, you’re born and you spend your life here, your odds of your life ending by murder are one in 179 over your life. Not over a year or any other timeframe.”

“It’s just somebody’s gonna murder you before you die of natural causes, an accident, suicide, whatever it may be,” he continued.

Now, it’s an important point that this isn’t a one-year span. As it stands, the number is kind of horrifying, but if the probabilities were that high for a given year, I’d imagine most people wouldn’t leave the house.


Then again, it’s not like we don’t have experience being locked down in our own homes.

Still, the figure is troubling. I don’t know enough math to check the figures, but it doesn’t actually sound implausible.

What that means, though, is that within your circle of friends, at least one of them will be murdered, and likely more…assuming that the murder victim isn’t you.

That’s if things continue along the current path, and that’s the good news.

Luckily, things are already happening that will short-circuit that prediction. For one, we’ve seen constitutional carry pass in numerous states. That will likely drop the homicide rate as more and more Americans carry firearms for their own defense. Many times, those weapons just being there will end a violent encounter with no loss of life.

We’re also seeing more and more people buying guns. They wisely recognize that this trend is happening, even if they can’t quantify it in hard numbers as the study did. They know it’s bad and they’re not interested in being the one person out of 179 that goes down like that.

As more and more people do so, along with “may issue” laws going down in flames via the Bruen decision, bad guys are going to have to do some figuring.


Now, all that said, we also need to recognize a few other facts.

One is that averages are just that, averages. It may average out that one out of 179 people will be murder victims, but that’s across the total population of the United States. You’re more likely to see that among certain groups–gang members, for example–than you will among others, such as the posh folks living in Beverly Hills.

So many of us, despite the averages, won’t actually experience this even if the trends continue. Others will likely not notice it because the number of homicide victims in their circle of friends is already so high.

But it’s alarming nonetheless and I’m glad we have the right to keep and bear arms to make sure it’s not us or anyone in our vicinity.

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