Members of the Senate are elected to six years, as opposed to the two in the House. That means the House can ebb and flow with significant regularity, while the Senate is far more likely to lag behind the public sentiment.
And that's important for a number of reasons, including the fact that senators may oppose pro-gun legislation in two years when, potentially, there's a pro-gun majority in the House and a pro-gun voice in the White House. I don't need to explain why that's bad.
However, there's also a potentially bigger problem.
In the wake of Tuesday’s Democrat trouncing of Republicans across the country, outgoing Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis—who is already being looked at as a possible presidential contender in 2028—said it might take several years before another conservative justice like Samuel Alito or Clarence Thomas could be confirmed to the U.S. Supreme Court.
DeSantis offered the gloomy forecast on ‘X’ in which he observed, “Assuming Republicans lose the seats where prediction markets have the Democrats at 90+% to win, that would produce 55 Democrat Senate seats. Chance of confirming a worthy successor to Justice Thomas and/or Alito during President Trump’s term: Zero. Chance of confirming a worthy successor during a hypothetical GOP admin 2029-2033: probably zero (GOP won’t be able to recapture enough seats in 28).”
Reactions to his remarks pointed fingers at Sen. John Thune (R-SD), the Senate Majority Leader, for not passing the controversial SAVE Act. Others blame non-voters who sat out the election. One man wrote in response to DeSantis, “Dems didn’t even have to cheat. There were enough spineless and lazy republicans who refused to get out and vote. Now the country is on the fast track to socialism anthem communism.”
Assuming Republicans lose the seats where prediction markets have the Democrats at 90+% to win, that would produce 55 Democrat Senate seats. Chance of confirming a worthy successor to Justice Thomas and/or Alito during President Trump’s term: Zero. Chance of confirming a worthy successor during a hypothetical GOP admin 2029-2033: probably zero (GOP won’t be able to recapture enough seats in 28).
— Ron DeSantis (@RonDeSantis) November 4, 2026
I'd love to say that DeSantis is wrong here, but it's simple math. Trump's ability to get nominees through on his own is effectively nil. He'll have to either nominate someone the Democrats will want, which means nothing good for us, or leave a seat vacant. In the case of the Supreme Court, though, leaving a seat vacant is not much different than nominating a leftist for the seat. You're still diluting the pro-gun voting block.
If DeSantis is right, that means 2030 is the next viable opportunity for a conservative replacement. Maybe.
Thomas is 78 and Alito is 76. They're both old enough that retirement might not be the biggest concern. I think we all need to pray for both men's health, of course, and even Roberts, who is 71. These three aren't spring chickens, and if things don't go very well for the next four years, if not longer, we may see a reverse of literally everything we've seen since Trump's first term, including a massive majority for one side.
Sure, Democrats would finally stop talking about court packing, but the reason why doesn't make me feel the least bit better about any of it.
Buckle up, boys and girls. It's going to be a bumpy ride.