In less than a month Maine's new 72-hour waiting period on firearm transfers will take effect, barring any last minute injunction by a judge, anyway. The new law threatens to wreak havoc on gun shows throughout the state, which is why gun show promoter Ryan Appleby decided to donate the proceeds from last weekend's show to an impending lawsuit that will challenge the waiting period in federal court. 

That legal defense fund will likely get a significant boost after scores of Mainers headed to the Elks Lodge in Augusta to make a purchase or two before the new law takes effect. 

Business was brisk at the last gun show before a new Maine law takes effect that establishes a three-day waiting period for most firearm purchases. It's a requirement that opponents say will sap attendance and potentially end such events, which is why the two-day show at the Elks Lodge in Augusta also doubled as a fundraiser for a pending legal challenge to the new law.

The Elks Lodge banquet hall was packed with people who perused an assortment of firearms and knives that ranged from modern to vintage. Randy Shibles, of Hartland, leaned toward the latter when he purchased a Yugoslavian Mauser rifle from the post World War II era. 

"I'm kind of trying to be a collector of some older, more unique stuff. So anything I can get my hands on is good for me," he said.

While business was brisk this past weekend, Appleby says he's expecting a huge drop-off in attendance for future shows so long as the waiting period remains in place. 

Ryan Appleby, co-owner of Freedom Promotions, says the law will hurt gun shows because prospective attendees may not want to go if they can't leave with their purchase. He says that will primarily affect rural vendors because buyers may not want to go through the trouble of traveling to pick up their gun after the waiting period is over.

And while vendors are trying to work out transfers between dealers, Appleby worries many prospective buyers just won't bother.

"If even 20 percent or so of the customers don't want to deal with that -- even though they know they can, they just don't want to -- that kind of brings attendance down enough at the bigger shows that it's probably not going to be feasible enough to do it," he said.

I expect that Appleby is right. Take Randy Shibles, for instance. The Hartland resident drove about an hour to Augusta to attend the gun show, but would he have made the trip if he would potentially have to drive even further to pick up his vintage rifle three days later? As Appleby points out, it's not just attendees who might be making a long drive to get to the show. Vendors will come from across the state of Maine as well, but if there's no easy way for them to transfer guns to their lawful buyers then some of them will undoubtedly decide its a waste of time and money to set up a table for the weekend. 

Gun control activists like Maine Gun Safety Coalition Executive Director Nacole Palmer, on the other hand, contend that gun owners and sellers have nothing to worry about.

"Those states have plenty of gun shows. In fact, I've heard it described as a booming gun show business," said Palmer.

Palmer said in many of those states the shows operate the same way, but with a delivery system instead. People are still able to purchase guns at the show, but they have to have them sent to a nearby gun dealer or their home after the waiting period is over. Though that can be seen as an inconvenience, Palmer said it can be vital for those who are contemplating using the guns for violence. She said the 72 hours can act as a cool down period, preventing many from acting on impulsive thoughts of violence, such as homicide and especially suicide, of which suicide rates by gun are especially high. 

"The presence of deadly weapons makes those situations deadly, quite frankly," Palmer said. 

Palmer's flat-out wrong about buyers having their purchases shipped to their home. Unless someone possesses a federal firearms license, shipping guns directly to customers is a violation of federal law, thanks to the Gun Control Act of 1968. And many attendees don't have a nearby gun dealer, which is why they're willing to drive an hour or more to browse the tables at a gun show. 

It's true that there have been some studies that found waiting periods can reduce suicide, but there's also been research suggesting that waiting periods don't have the beneficial impact supporters like Palmer claim. 

Evidence from a cohort of handgun purchasers in California found that, although almost no firearm suicides were committed by this population during the state's 15-day waiting period, the most elevated relative risk of firearm suicide (compared with the general population) occurred in the first week after receipt of the weapon and remained highly elevated during the first month of purchase (Wintemute et al., 1999). A more recent analysis of handgun owners in California found that the risk of firearm suicide was highest immediately following the end of the state's ten-day waiting period (i.e., 11 to 30 days after the purchase application), but more than half of all firearm suicides among handgun owners occurred more than one year after the purchase application (Studdert et al., 2020). Moreover, most firearms are purchased by individuals who already own a firearm. Azrael et al. (2017) found that, on average, gun owners had close to five firearms each, and a large majority (62 percent) purchased their most recent weapon from a licensed gun dealer. For those who already own guns, a waiting period may have little or no effect on suicide risk.

The goal of suicide prevention is to, you know, prevent, not to delay someone's attempt to end their own life. Waiting periods don't do anything to address the underlying issues that lead to suicidal ideation, which is why Gov. Janet Mills pushed for lawmakers to expand mental health services in the state. Unfortunately, the governor allowed the waiting period bill to become law without her signature rather than vetoing the anti-gun measure, but gun owners throughout the state are now banding together to undo the mandated waiting periods and to keep their Second Amendment rights intact.