Unless the polls have missed a major shift on the part of California's electorate, Democrats like Kamala Harris and Adam Schiff are going to cruise to victory in the Golden State in a couple of weeks. A September survey by the Public Policy Institute of California, for instance, found Harris with a 30-point lead over Donald Trump. But that same poll also shows that Californians have had enough of the soft-on-crime policies championed by Harris, Gov. Gavin Newsom, and progressive prosecutors like Los Angeles County D.A. George Gascon. 

According to PPIC, more than 70% of California voters plan on supporting Prop 36, which would undo some of the criminal justice reforms adopted a decade ago that reduced sentences for things like theft and drug crimes. And as POLITICO reports, Gascon's re-election campaign is sputtering as well; another sign that Golden State voters are turning right on issues like crime and public safety.

Public polling puts Gascón 30 points behind his challenger Nathan Hochman, a Republican-turned-independent former federal prosecutor. The slew of high-wattage Democratic politicians and funders who clambered to back his 2020 bid for district attorney — from Vice President Kamala Harris to George Soros — are nowhere to be found. Neither campaign has shown an appetite to cast the contest as a high-stakes broader referendum on criminal justice reform that would surely launch a thousand think pieces pondering the fate of the movement nationwide. 

But Gascón’s widely anticipated loss could still leave a lasting imprint on the public safety debate, particularly as he appears on the same ballot as a state initiative that would increase penalties for certain drug and theft crimes. Together, those races — along with the second Bay Area progressive prosecutor in two years to face a recall — would mark a notable rollback of the reforms California voters embraced over the last decade at a time when crime consistently ranks as a top issue in the presidential election.

The ballot initiative and Gascón’s race “will be combined, and rightfully so, as a signal that people want change,” said Rick Caruso, a centrist Democrat and former Los Angeles mayoral candidate who is backing Hochman. “And I think the elected officials in office are going to take notice of it. I hope they do. If they’re smart, they will."

Caruso's an interesting case study in how even "moderate" California Democrats have gotten fed up with the state's soft-on-crime attitudes, while at the same time trying to make it harder for folks to protect themselves. Two years ago, when the Supreme Court issued its decision in Bruen striking down "may issue" carry regimes like the one in California, Caruso was quick to condemn the ruling. 

I stand against this supreme court decision, it will only lead to more needless gun violence. pic.twitter.com/Xh66fvkntd

— Rick J. Caruso (@RickCarusoLA) June 23, 2022

Caruso's prediction, unsurprisingly, hasn't come to pass. There's been no wave of violence committed by concealed carry licensees, who are statistically far more law-abiding than the general population. 

Unfortunately, while the number of concealed carry applicants in Los Angeles soared after the Bruen decision, the number of residents with an active carry permit is still artificially depressed thanks to the exorbitant fees charged by some jurisdictions and the abysmally long time it's taking for the LAPD and Los Angeles County Sheriff's Department to process applications.

According to the LAPD, within the first year of the high court ruling, thousands of Angelenos indicated that they were interested in obtaining a CCW permit. Today, more than 5,800 Angelenos are currently waitlisted for permits, LAPD spokesperson Officer Drake Madison confirmed earlier this month.

Across the state, law enforcement agencies have had trouble keeping up with the growing demand for CCW permits, CalMatters reported.

According to data obtained from the LAPD, as of earlier this month, the LAPD had only issued 247 permits this year.

A department spokesperson said that, on average, the department processes approximately 160 to 180 applicants per month.

At that rate, it could take some applicants years to get approved for a CCW permit.

While groups like the California Rifle & Pistol Association and Gun Owners of California are challenging these excessive fees and wait times in federal court, the restrictions on lawful gun owners could also be a winning issue for politicians who dare to challenge the status quo. In the state's deep-blue enclaves like Los Angeles and San Francisco, that probably means running nominally independent candidates instead of outright Republicans. Hochman's campaign, if successful, could provide a roadmap for electing Second Amendment supporters as sheriff, district attorney, and other non-statewide offices on a platform of cracking down on criminals while ensuring that lawful citizens have the means to protect themselves. 

To be fair, anti-2A attitudes are deeply entrenched in these locales, and success might not be seen overnight. But ten years ago California voters approved Prop 47 with 58% of the vote, putting in place the soft-on-crime policies they're now likely to repeal by even wider margins. With credible messengers and a platform that calls for decriminalizing the exercise of a fundamental civil right while getting tough on violent offenders, Second Amendment advocates could start to undo decades of damage and restore the right to keep and bear arms in one of the most 2A-hostile environments in the country.