To back up his assertion, Kottke makes the following argument: if you discovered that a guy who lives one street over from you had a heart attack, you wouldn't go out of your way to avoid that street. But, he adds, "even a rumor that a young man living on the next street over has purchased an assault rifle or been given one for his birthday would trigger your anxiety."
Now, my guess is Dr. Kottke is probably unaware that there are more than 20 million semiautomatic rifles in the hands of average, ordinary Americans. I can't imagine that he'd feel comfortable ever leaving his home if he knew that statistic, or that there are more than 400 million privately owned firearms in the United States, or that well over 20 million people are exercising their right to carry on a regular basis.
To bolster his assumption, Kottke cites his own research, which purports to show that 90% of Americans are either "extremely anxious" or "somewhat anxious" when "asked about gun violence concerns." Of course, we don't know how those questions were posed, but Kottke drilled down a little further and discovered that "37% of respondents stated that they had avoided going somewhere over the past 6 months due to fear or anxiety about gun violence."
My question: what places did they avoid? I wouldn't frame it as "gun violence", but there are parts of Richmond, Virginia I avoid because of the higher rates of violent crime. The same was true of Washington, D.C. when I lived in northern Virginia. Most of us would probably avoid going someplace where the risk of robbery, carjacking, and yes, being shot, are higher than average. I don't think anxiety has anything to do with it. It's just common sense.
Kottke also claims that "in one of the surveys my research team obtained, 29% of respondents reported that they had been in a location where someone unexpectedly opened fire with a gun. Most frequently it was in a bar or nightclub, but 10% reported that it was in a grocery store."
That makes me wonder who, exactly, was being surveyed. If Kottke's numbers are accurate, then that means 27 million Americans have been shopping at a grocery store when someone opened fire, and 82 million people have been present at a bar or nightclub when shots rang out. According to one study, about 21% of Americans reported going to "a venue that combines an activity with food and drink"; i.e. drinking and dancing, in the previous twelve months.
Now, that's just one year, and it is true that there are a small number of clubs and bars around where shots have been fired either inside or outside the establishment. Still, I'm calling B.S. on the claim that almost 1-in-3 Americans have been present at such incidents.
Kottke's dubious claims get even more outlandish when he discusses his solution for such stress and anxiety.
The doctor claims that the "assault weapon" and magazine bans introduced in the Minnesota legislature "can be expected to reduce death and injury," and adds that "banning assault weapons and large capacity magazines will also likely reduce the stress and anxiety of Minnesotans, particularly students, parents, grandparents."
There are more homicides committed each year with fists and feet than with rifles of any kind, so no, these bills wouldn't greatly reduce death and injury... which, by the way, are already trending down across the United States. 2025 had the lowest homicide rate since at least 1960.
Yes, violence can happen anywhere. So can car accidents. People who are seemingly young and healthy can be struck down by brain aneurysms, pulmonary embolisms, strokes, and cardiac events.
If you think too much about all of the ways we might possibly meet our end, you're probably going to feel pretty anxious. But the truth is that you are far more likely to die of natural causes like heart disease or cancer than by any violent means. The media, though, doesn't generally cover those deaths. Violence is the bread-and-butter of local news, and a high-profile shooting in a public place is sure to garner round-the-clock coverage from national news outlets as well; not because these events are so common, but because they are so rare and out of the ordinary.
I don't doubt that many Americans are anxious and stressed about "gun violence." The cure, though, doesn't lie with bans on commonly owned firearms and ammunition magazines. What we need is factual reporting by the media, less fearmongering from the gun control lobby, and an honest discussion about what violent crime in this country really looks like; starting with the small number of people in small portions of any given city who are disproportionately likely to both commit and be the victims of violence.
For all I know Kottke's a great doctor, but his prescription for reducing stress and anxiety is a snake oil solution that's the very definition of bad medicine... and Minnesotans who buy into his nonsense should seek a second opinion.
