If Fox News is right, one of the big questions on Election Day isn't going if Democrats capture control of the U.S. House, but how big their majority will be. The network's latest Power Rankings predicts Democrats will win at least 223 seats, with a potential of 250 or more if we see a blue wave election.
Fox has shifted 19 House races towards Democrats, and for the first time this cycle one of them is TX-23, where Brandon "The AK Guy" Herrera is facing Democrat Katy Padilla Stout. Fox now says the district, which went for President Donald Trump by 15 points in 2024, has moved from "Likely R" to "Leans R," suggesting that Herrera is still favored... but more vulnerable than he was just a few weeks ago.
Fox isn't the first to shift TX-23. Decision Desk HQ moved the district from Likely Republican to Lean Republican on October 23. Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball have also moved the district into the Lean Republican column.
The prediction markets are also showing a tightening race. Polymarket gives Herrera a 59 percent chance of winning election, which is up a couple of percentage points from where he stood a few days ago. Kalshi has Herrera with a 57 percent chance of winning, though the predicted margin of victory is just 1.3 points.
So what's going on that could be leading to a closer race?
The national political environment may be the biggest factor. Decision Desk HQ currently estimates the national generic congressional ballot at D+8. Its TX-23 model now projects Herrera winning by roughly six points, about nine points less than Trump's 2024 margin. Herrera may be running into a national Democrat wave rather than a uniquely local collapse in support.
A poll from earlier this month by Normington, Petts & Associates for the Democrat-aligned House Majority PAC also showed the race between Herrera and Stout deadlocked at 46-46. The survey had a pretty small sample size of 400 likely voters, and its affiliation with a Democrat-run PAC shouldn't be ignored, but that's still far too close for comfort.
The website Puck reported last week that House Majority PAC is actually spending some money in TX-23 as well. The group is running an ad in both English and Spanish that accuses Herrera of shooting cardboard targets of kids and "laughing about" it three months after the shooting at Robb Elementary in Uvalde, which is located in TX-23. I've previously debunked this talking point, but I don't know how many voters in the district are going to be aware of the details of that particular video.
According to Puck, House Majority PAC isn't the only outside group that's now opening up its wallet to fund anti-Herrera ads.
Matt Munsil of Invest in Tomorrow Coalition—a clean-energy political action committee targeting House Freedom Caucus recruits this cycle—told Leigh Ann that his organization is also launching digital ads featuring a montage of Herrera’s worst offenses. But the investment may be too little, too late. The D.C.C.C. and House Majority PAC typically favor candidates who are already strong fundraisers, and several strategists told me Padilla Stout has severely underperformed. Unlike other Democratic candidates running against controversial Republicans, Padilla Stout is not on the D.C.C.C.’s coveted Red to Blue list. Meanwhile, House Republican leaders haven’t shied away from campaigning with Herrera despite his controversies, recognizing that they need to hold TX-23 if Democrats flip other districts in the state. So far, Republicans have outspent Democrats in the race by roughly $2 million, according to AdImpact.
DDHQ reports that through October 14 Herrera had a nearly 3-1 fundraising advantage over Stout. But the website PaidForPolitics.com shows Stout has benefitted from $3.2 million in outside spending on her behalf, compared to $2.4 million for Herrera. Much of the anti-Herrera spending has come in the final weeks of the campaign as well.
DDHQ is still bullish on Herrera, giving him a 73 percent chance of winning TX-23. That number has dropped by six points over the last week, though, and it's actually the lowest its been since at least May of this year.
Herrera is still the odds-on favorite in TX-23, and I don't think his campaign is or should be hitting the panic button yet. My concern is that the national political environment for Republicans is probably the biggest drag on his campaign at the moment, and I don't see that improving much (if at all) between now and next Tuesday. That, plus the late influx of Democrat dollars aimed at pushing Herrera's negatives higher, could make TX-23 a lot closer than most folks expected just a few weeks ago.
Even if Democrats have a good night, Herrera is still likely going to win. If Democrats have a great night, though, Herrera's next trip to Capitol Hill will probably be as a tourist and not a congressman-elect.
