Gun Sales Surged Before Election Day. Will the Spike Continue?

NICS transfers on firearms shot up significantly in October compared to the year before, according to the National Shooting Sports Foundation. The group's adjusted NICS figures, which are used as a proxy for gun sales, showed a 7.9 percent increase compared to October 2025. 

Mark Oliva, NSSF's Managing Director of Public Affairs, says the 1,402,422 checks is evidence that gun owners were already voting with their wallets when it comes to their Second Amendment rights, even before they headed to the polls to vote on Election Day. 

The October report of a 7.9 percent increase of background checks for the sale of a firearm at retailer, compared to a year ago, is a significant increase that shows Americans invest in their personal safety and right to keep and bear arms. Month-after month, Americans prove that they reject unconstitutional gun control when they show up to the gun counter and legally buy guns. This right is no less important than the right to freely choose representation in government. By the millions, Americans are making their voices heard. NSSF will continue to work to ensure their the ability for law-abiding citizens to freely purchase the firearms of their choosing is protected by the next Congress and state legislatures.”

We don't know what led to the increase, but gun sales do typically tick up in response to concerns about new gun control laws. With Democrats favored to take back control of the House, some buyers may have decided that the time was right to pick up a new pistol or rifle before anti-gun politicians had a chance to mess with our Second Amendment rights. 

Of course, Democrats outperformed most Election Day expectations, and I wouldn't be shocked at all to see even stronger numbers when NSSF reports on the November figures when they're released in early December. 

In particular, I'd look for sales in those states now facing a Democrat trifecta in government to lead the charge. We started to see Virginia's NICS numbers increase not long after Democrats took control of the governor's office and both chambers of the legislature in late 2025, and sales got stronger throughout the year in advance of a ban on so-called assault firearms taking effect on July 1. 

Pennsylvania is one of those states, and it was already second in the nation in terms of NICS checks on long guns, third in NICS checks on handguns, and fourth in overall NICS checks last month. Wisconsin was also one of the top five states for NICS checks on long gun transfers last month, and Democrats will assume complete control of state government there next year as well. Minnesota is also almost certain to see a significant bump in sales given that Democrats have already signaled their intent to pass a ban on so-called assault weapons. 

Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms Chairman Alan Gottlieb predicts the surge in gun sales will be nationwide. In a press release, Gottlieb stated:

“We may be about to witness a surge in gun buying not seen since 2020. We also anticipate a flood of new, anti-Second Amendment legislation designed to further restrict the rights of law-abiding citizens, especially in states with legislatures controlled by Democrats, and from Congress. The gun prohibition lobby is probably already salivating over various schemes to ratchet down on gun owners, to get around a string of recent U.S. Supreme Court rulings which have affirmed the individual right to keep and bear arms.

The gun control crowd may attempt to pass legislation relating to modern semiautomatic rifles and pistols in anticipation of the Supreme Court ruling on whether these firearms are protected by the Second Amendment. That could easily ignite a semi-auto buying surge, so nobody should be surprised when that happens. When you tell Americans they can’t have something, they rush to buy whatever it is.

Buying a firearm before a ban takes effect is no substitute for fighting to prevent that ban from becoming law in the first place. A new rifle in the safe won't do much good for the next generation of gun owners if Democrats succeed in making it illegal for them to purchase one.

Still, I don't blame anyone for wanting to get ahead of the gun control lobby's agenda, especially after Tuesday's election results. In fact, I encourage them to do so. If October's numbers were a sign of growing anxiety about the future of our Second Amendment rights, November's figures could be downright eye-popping. 

Editor’s Note: The radical Left will stop at nothing to enact their extreme gun control agenda and strip us of our Second Amendment rights.

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