Why Brandon Herrera Lost in Texas-23

I haven't hidden that I'm a fan of Brandon Herrera, both as a YouTuber and a congressional candidate. I happen to think he's funny as hell, and while I don't agree with him on everything, I do happen to agree with him on enough that I wanted to see him win.

Unfortunately, as we now know, that didn't happen.

Democrat Katy Padilla Stout appeared headed for a stunning victory Tuesday night in Texas’ sprawling 23rd Congressional District, defeating expectations, flipping a congressional seat and promising to bring healing to the area marked by scandal, controversy and bitter political divisions.

With two counties of the 23 in the district not reporting results, Stout had 55.2% of the vote over 42.5% garnered by Republican Brandon Herrera. At midnight, the New York Times called the race for Padilla Stout.

“We did it and we did it together,” Padilla Stout told supporters gathered at Willie’s Grill and Icehouse on election night. The crowd broke into cheers throughout the evening as returns showed the first-time candidate pulling ahead in a district that Republicans had controlled for years.

Speaking to supporters late Tuesday, Padilla Stout stopped short of formally declaring victory but expressed confidence that her lead was too large for Herrera to overcome.

“This night belongs to us, and we are so excited to be here,” she said.

“Every vote will be counted but this right here, this community, this love, this support. This is what they tried to buy — but they cannot,” Padilla said.

The 23rd district had been reliably red for a very long time. Herrera should have been an improvement over Tony Gonzalez, particularly on the issue of guns, but was that what went wrong?

After all, this is the district of Uvalde. Surely Herrera's issues stem from being so pro-gun right?

Not really.

First, let's understand that if Herrera had a problem, it was that dark humor can be manipulated easily. I have a similar sense of humor, so while I can find lighthearted humor funny, too. I get what Herrera joked about. Padilla Stout, however, used that and pretended it meant something it didn't. She might have actually believed it, too, if I'm being honest, but anyone who saw the context understood the joking.

But that didn't help.

However, even that wasn't what got Herrera.

Herrera, like many others on the ballot in Texas, fell in part because Ken Paxton was such a drag on the party. While his policies were fine, for the most part, the reality is that he's scandal-plagued, and that simply turned off a lot of Republican voters who decided not to come out. It also motivated a lot of independents and a lot of Democrats who might otherwise not have bothered turning out to the polls.

As of Monday morning, Herrera trails Padilla Stout by about eight points. That's considerably better than Paxton, who is about 13 points behind James Talarico. And for the anti-gunners who'll claim that it was Herrera's views on the Second Amendment that swung things in favor of the Democrats, Herrera actually won Uvalde County by a healthy margin. With about 95 percent of the vote counted, he has a nine point lead over the Democrat there. 

Strong Democrat turnout in Bexar and El Paso counties made a difference, but it looks like Herrera also underperformed in several border counties as well. With exit polls showing Latino men swinging towards Democrats by more than 20 points, Herrera not only had to deal with an unpopular Senate candidate but a border county backlash on immigration enforcement. 

I'm sorry to see Brandon not win, because I think he would have been a force for good in the United States House of Representatives, but that's not what the people of the district wanted, apparently.

Considering that Gonzalez was barely a Republican anyway, that seat might never have been as red as a lot of us wanted to believe in the first place.

Editor’s Note: The radical Left will stop at nothing to enact their extreme gun control agenda and strip us of our Second Amendment rights.

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