Most of the national headlines today are about Democrats capturing both the House and Senate, what that means for President Trump's final two years in office, and the rebuilding that Republicans are going to have to do in order to win back disaffected voters. The blue wave seen on Tuesday, though, has swept in a big problem for gun owners in a half-dozen states: governing trifectas for Democrats replacing divided governments.
When one party has control of the legislature and another controls the governor's office, or even if one party has control of just one chamber of the legislature, gun owners at least have a firewall that can block new restrictions on our Second Amendment rights from becoming law.
That firewall has now disappeared in at least five states, and one more could officially fall once all the voters are counted.
Democrats gained complete control of state government in Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, on Tuesday, and may be able to win control of state government in Arizona as well. The Arizona Republic reported on Wednesday morning that about "eight Senate contests and about 15 races for seats in the state House" are still too close to call, but Democrats have a chance to wrest control of the state legislature from Republicans for the first time in decades. With Democrat Katie Hobbs winning reelection as Arizona's governor on Tuesday night, Arizona could be the sixth state where gun owners lose the protections that have been in place.
So what can gun owners in these states expect next year? I'd say look to Virginia for a preview of things to come. After Democrats swept into power last year, they didn't act with caution or any kind of trepidation. They introduced dozens of gun control bills, and while not all of them became law we still saw passage of bans on so-called assault firearms, raising the age to purchase firearms to 21, storage mandates, open carry bans, new "gun-free zones," and more.
I think we can expect the same these newly blue states. The one variable is the fact that the Supreme Court is likely going to strike down bans on so-called assault weapons next year. Will Democrats pass outright prohibitions that might not even take effect, or will they instead adopt the Colorado model of requiring permits to purchase semi-automatic long guns... or even all firearms?
Honestly, some states might pass both; an "assault weapon" ban to try to demonstrate the popularity of prohibiting AR-15s and other semi-automatic firearms, and a permit-to-purchase law as a backstop if and when SCOTUS says bans on those arms violate the Second Amendment.
We're also likely going to see restrictions on items like suppressors and short-barreled firearms. In some states, Democrats might choose to impose new taxes instead but if they have large enough majorities, I wouldn't be surprised to see outright bans on the sale and transfer of these items.
Most of these states are going to see the introduction of new "gun-free zones" that are off limits to concealed carry holders. Gun owners are also likely to be subjected to new training requirements for concealed carry licenses, and Arizona Democrats might even try to repeal permitless carry if they are able to capture the state House and Senate.
With President Donald Trump promising to use his veto powers, the states are where we're going to see the most threats to our Second Amendment rights. And unfortunately for us, the map for anti-gun activists and the gun control lobby is a lot bigger than it was yesterday.