The National Shooting Sports Foundation takes a look at the monthly number of NICS checks and breaks them down. Not all NICS checks are gun sales, after all, so breaking them down tells us a lot.
And it tells us that fewer background checks for gun purchases.
That's the bad news...or is it?
The number of firearm sales, as reflected in the National Shooting Sport Foundation (NSSF) adjusted numbers for the National Instant Background Check System (NICS) for September of 2026, has dropped by 2.3% compared to September of 2025. The raw number of all checks in the NICS for September dropped by .8%.
As stated by NSSF:
The September 2026 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,152,077 is a decrease of 2.3 percent compared to the September 2025 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,179,424. For comparison, the unadjusted September 2026 FBI NICS figure of 1,843,700 reflects a 0.8 percent decrease from the unadjusted FBI NICS figure of 1,858,763 in September 2025.
The drop breaks the trend of the last eight months, where the numbers for 2026 have been higher than the number of sales for 2025. Only two months in 2026 have had lower sales than in 2025. Those months are January and December.
One of the potential reasons for NICS checks being higher are the large increases in NICS checks for National Firearms Act (NFA) items in 2026. However, in September both the adjusted numbers for firearm sales and the raw NICS checks decreased. The increase of the NFA items is about 4.6% of the total NICS checks for September of 2026.
From NSSF:
The September 2026 NFA figure of 149,614 is an increase of 129.2 percent compared to the September 2025 figure of 65,273.
What this shows me is that gun sales are basically stable, while NFA transfers are soaring. That might account for the slight dip in NICS checks on non-NFA transfers, with some people who would have bought a regular AR-15 this year opting to get a short-barreled AR-15 instead, or folks using their gun money to buy suppressors instead of a new firearm.
After all, it's now cheaper than ever to do these things, mostly because Uncle Sam isn't hitting you for another $200. Considering that SBRs aren't necessarily more expensive than full-length rifles, and the Form 1 approval is basically "shall issue," I can't say that I blame folks for going that direction.
And those companies that make both kinds of rifles aren't exactly losing out.
As for conventional gun sales, I wouldn't read too much into one month's modest decline, especially when the numbers for the third quarter are still higher than they were a year ago.
The bigger picture is that Americans continue to purchase firearms in large numbers.
Things look pretty good from what I can tell, and that's good for all of us. "In common use" is a thing in the judicial arena, and getting these things in common use is a bulwark against future regulation.
So have fun, folks. I've got to see about joining you, though I have to jump through a few more hoops than I should.
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