We don't agree on everything, nor will we ever. What we can agree on is that over the last couple of years, the violent crime rate has plummeted, all at a time when we were told the rate was going to increase as a result of the Bruen decision.
The Center for American Progress decided to release a "study" looking at the drop, but everyone they talked to ignored the important point.
See, every city and state has some kind of program that they claim will reduce violent crime. Sometimes, it's something sensible. Other times, it's something completely insane.
And with the CAP comes a-calling, they'll trot out their beloved programs.
But let's look at a little something for a moment.
First, again, let's remember that the Bruen decision put more guns on the streets of America than ever before. "May issue" permitting was dead, and while carry-killer bills were all over the place, the truth was that a lot of people started carrying a firearm because the state couldn't stop them.
So where does CAP see some of the biggest drops?
Even so, national trends can only explain part of the declines experienced over the past four years, especially for the cities that have seen the steepest declines in gun victimizations since 2021. Center for American Progress analysis of data from the Gun Violence Archives (GVA) finds that from 2021 to 2025, 17 of the 50 most populous cities have seen their gun victimization rate decline by more than 50 percent. These cities are:
- San Jose, California
- Bakersfield, California
- Fresno, California
- San Diego, California
- Columbus, Ohio
- Detroit, Michigan
- Oakland, California
- Denver, Colorado
- Chicago, Illinois
- District of Columbia
- Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
- Aurora, Colorado
- Portland, Oregon
- New York, New York
- Austin, Texas
- Baltimore, Maryland
- Houston, Texas
Nearly a third of them are in California, which was "may issue" and very hostile toward concealed carry if you weren't connected. Chicago's on that list, too, and while many parts of Illinois were down with concealed carry, Chicago wasn't, really. New York City's right there, too.
In fact, only a few cities in truly gun rights states made the top 17. That alone hints that the Bruen decision may have played at least some factor.
I've never said it was all of it, and unlike these twerps touting their own pet projects as the grand successes they likely aren't, I'm willing to accept the possibility it had nothing to do with it at all. I just don't think that's the case.
Especially since we know good and well that every anti-gunner out there started clutching their pearls the moment the Bruen decision was handed down. They swore we would see the streets run red with blood or whatever shape their hysteria took, and then they pretend that no, the only reason that didn't happen was that they have a program that teaches underwater birdwatching to at-risk youth.
See, this report isn't based on anything but feelings. They asked city leaders what worked, and those officials had a vested interest in tooting their own horn. They just fed them whatever program made them look good, which they'll likely then use when it's time for re-election.
No one even acknowledges the possibility that the Bruen decision and the ensuing changes to the rules of who can get a permit might have had a positive effect. They pretend it's just not a thing.
Oh no, it's all a mystery.
Then again, admitting that gun rights are probably a good thing--the absolute best you'd ever hope to get out of a blue city leader, and we all know it--would be tantamount to shooting your Democratic political career in the head.
Nothing about this surprises me, mind you, because they can't bring themselves to admit that everything they believed about the Bruen decision was wrong. Again, even if it's not the reason for the drop, they and their buddies were all wrong about what the impact would be, so they have an interest in just pretending they never said it.
But we remember. We know what was missing from this "report."
We will always remember.
